To the lay political observer, the Liberal Democrats probably featured little in their key takeaways from the local elections last month. They would likely be aware of our result in Richmond Upon Thames, given its portrayal as the ‘People’s Republic of Richmond’ on social media, but even that, for most, was merely a sidenote to the big stories of the night: Plaid Cymru in, Reform surging, and Labour disintegrating. There was then a second tier of key takeaways from May 7th: an unprecedented Green rise; a remarkable SNP fourth consecutive term in power in Holyrood; and a debate about whether the Tory decline was slowing down or not. After all these other stories are discussed, one might find time for the Lib Dems. But that is not because we did badly; rather, it is because we made modest gains again.
It is worth saying at the outset that 2026 was the eighth consecutive year of gains for the Lib Dems in local elections, something which I believe represents a record amongst any party. The gains in each of those years are as follows: 155 (2026), 163 (2025), 104 (2024), 407 (2023), 224 (2022), 8 (2021), 704 (2019), 76 (2018). The average number of gains each year over the last 8 is 230, making this year’s total of 155 very respectable, if slightly below par. There is also the crucial context that most of the elections this time around were in places last up in 2022, when we made a huge leap forward. Unlike in 2022 and especially 2019, the party was not starting from a very low base. Any gains this time would have to be on top of previous gains.
This year has also seen the party taking control of 4 councils outright: Stockport, Portsmouth, and the two new Unitary councils in Surrey. This tells a pretty good story, as we are hot on the toes of Labour in parts of the North (we remain the largest party in Hull, despite losing our majority, and we are now the largest party in Newcastle), as well as dismantling the Tories in classic true-blue territory. The so-called ‘blue wall’ we coined a few years ago is slowly becoming an orange wall.
We must also look to Scotland, where we came second in the tally of constituency seats to the SNP, which, in addition to our regional wins, took us to a total of 10 MSPs – our largest tally in the Scottish Parliament since 2007. We can also claim to have stopped the SNP from reaching the majority they needed to credibly demand an independence referendum. With all this in mind, why is this set of elections being written into the political discourse as a damp squib for the Lib Dems?
The most obvious reason for this would be the historic opportunity posed by a situation in which both major parties, Labour and the Conservatives, are doing badly. It would usually be expected that at such a time, it would be the Lib Dems, as the third party of Britain, that capitalises. You could point to 1974 or 2005 for such moments. Yet this moment is different: the main two parties have never been so unpopular. However, the people seeking to prosecute this argument against us do not quite understand why the main two parties are polling historically low: it is partially because there are credible options on both sides of them for the first time.
The Lib Dems can never really expect far-right or far-left voters to drift towards us in a time of peril for the Tories or Labour, but these voters have a viable alternative home now that Reform and the Greens have emerged as seriously electable parties in large parts of the country. Our pool of voters remains much as it always was; those stuck in the middle of British politics – periodically frustrated by the incompetence or lack of integrity demonstrated by Labour or Conservative governments. Therefore, when the Labour government became unpopular in the mid to late 2000s, we did better in some of their battlegrounds, including South Wales and university towns. However, in the 2024 election, it was the Tory government that was unpopular; hence, most of our gains came in the South-West and the South-East and not one gain was made from Labour.
The problem the party always faces, therefore, is keeping the seats it has gained when the party in power changes and the set of disgruntled voters change. Our current challenge is whether we can keep the seats we gained from the Conservatives last time around as they seek to make a comeback with the protections from accountability that go with being in opposition.
There are some signs of this comeback: polling suggests that Kemi Badenoch is the most popular leader in the UK (more so than Ed Davey, who does occasionally top such polls, because they are based on net popularity, where he is rewarded for more people having no clue who he is, and fewer people actively hating him). Polling suggests that the Conservatives are starting to be trusted on the economy again (hence their new slogan: stronger economy, stronger country – which has replaced their slogan of 2025: stronger economy, stronger borders), and the Tories made key gains or holds in places like Westminster, Wandsworth and Harlow on May 7th this year (see the Norman Baker test for local election results). Crucially, the Conservative Party is consistently polling at around 20% compared to our 12% average.
As a result, the lens through which to assess the 2026 local elections for the Liberal Democrats is whether the Conservatives look likely to take straight back the seats we took last time around. The answer could barely be clearer that they will not. In every area where we hold a Member of Parliament, we seem to have avoided making any serious reversal on May 7th, and in some areas, we made huge leaps forward. This fact means that there is enormous satisfaction from constituents represented by Lib Dems: they genuinely feel that they have a ‘local champion’ in Parliament. We get mocked for being local champions sometimes, as if representing your constituency is some secondary role, but where a party shows a deep and very real commitment to concrete action on issues that matter to residents, they are re-elected.
South Cambridgeshire is one of the best examples of this: we hold the three largest constituencies in the council boundaries and accordingly, now hold 43 out of a total 45 seats. Likewise, in South West London, we hold all but 8 seats across the three councils of Sutton, Kingston and Richmond, along with the corresponding constituencies. Finally, in Winchester, where we won in 2024, we now hold 36 out of 45 seats. This level of consolidation is seriously impressive for the Lib Dems, and it seems to defy our previous history. Not just that, it defies national trends: the big picture of Reform and Green surges barely features in areas won by the Lib Dems, as neither party seemed capable of taking any significant number of seats from us. Voters with a Lib Dem MP are satisfied that their best representation lies with the status quo.
The conclusion from all this is that we are likely to emerge from the next general election with at least 72 MPs, which already makes it more difficult for any one party to win a majority, making it a safe bet that we will be kingmakers. The question we must ask ourselves is whether we are happy with that: our current strategy is working perfectly, but to make gains, we need a more national platform. We need bold, controversial policies that won’t pass every focus group. Everyone in the party knows this, from our grassroots supporters to our MPs to Ed Davey himself, but for now, the calculation is that it is not worth throwing away the position to be kingmakers to announce policies that we may then never have the opportunity to implement.
At the same time, we cannot go into another coalition without having clearly set out what we believe in to avoid breaking voters’ trust. Therefore, I end up in the same existential, impossible paradox that all Lib Dems face, to which none of us really have the answer yet. Maybe then, it is better to stick with our current strategy for now, which is proven to work, and wait for something else to give, like a split in the Greens or a collapse in support for Reform, and then seize the opportunity. To that end, I hope that this article has gone some way to suggest that the ball is very much in the Lib Dem court and will remain there even if we don’t kick it.