During every single day of the Trump administration, I will very simply put America first” declared the 45th and now 47th President, standing in the same Capitol rotunda that his supporters rampaged through four years ago. The President’s triumphant resurgence – winning the popular vote, all seven swing states, and a governing trifecta – represents a total usurpation of the former, liberal world order. Biden’s presidency will now be seen by history as an interlude, a brief intermission in the Trump story, not the grand liberal revival many hoped for in 2020.
Free-trade, respect for international institutions and international law, the very building blocks of our modern international system, are on the out. In their place, a volatile and transactional politics led by a superpower in it only for their own interests. Interests defined not in the broad, magnanimous terms of late 20th century American foreign policy, but instead the grim, Bismarckian Realpolitik of power and territorial expansion. NATO now appears more an American protection racket than a grand alliance, international institutions seem more a talking-shop for petty grievances than serious organisations, trade an arena for exploitation and extraction rather than mutual benefit.
The dangers of this transformation to Britain are clear. Destabilisation of NATO risks further conflict in Europe and continued coercion by a revanchist Russia. Trade wars risk Britain facing tariffs on our exports to America, our largest single trading partner. The shared, global interests of liberal democratic nations risk being undermined by division and self-interested policymaking.
But danger and volatility also breed opportunity. Britain is well-placed to seek an exemption from any broad-based American tariff measures, an opportunity to create unique economic advantages for the UK. Trump’s Anglophilia is well-known – he is, for example, in love with the Monarchy, describing Prince William as “really, very handsome” – and a major charm-offensive has great potential to win him over. If Britain doubles down on the principles on which my party was founded, free trade and economic liberalism, we can stand as a beacon of liberal prosperity in an increasingly mercantilist world.
Moreover, as America turns in on itself, Britain is presented with an opportunity to deepen ties with our other allies such as the European Union, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. As Trump giddily launches threats at his Northern neighbour, Britain can now make a point of deepening ties whilst enjoying a stronger negotiating position as Canada looks for stable, reliable partners. Europe – divided by a rising far-right, threatened by Russia and facing abandonment by America – is under intensifying pressure and Britain can enjoy a far stronger negotiating position with the continent than we did in 2016.
Trump’s presidency brings danger and volatility to the international stage. The stakes have risen, risk and opportunity abound. Britain has the opportunity to ride out this storm and come out all the stronger.